Pre-tourney Rankings
West Coast
2013-14


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
23 Gonzaga 100.0%   8   27 - 6 15 - 3 27 - 6 15 - 3 +13.6      +5.6 43 +8.0 15 66.4 209 +13.3 26 +13.2 1
47 BYU 60.2%   11   22 - 11 13 - 5 22 - 11 13 - 5 +10.2      +7.1 25 +3.1 92 83.3 5 +10.0 52 +9.8 3
69 St. Mary's 2.1%   21 - 11 11 - 7 21 - 11 11 - 7 +7.3      +5.5 45 +1.8 120 61.2 323 +7.3 73 +7.0 4
81 San Francisco 0.1%   19 - 11 13 - 5 19 - 11 13 - 5 +6.4      +5.0 54 +1.4 131 66.7 202 +7.1 74 +10.4 2
110 Portland 0.0%   15 - 16 7 - 11 15 - 16 7 - 11 +3.9      +2.7 108 +1.2 140 69.4 136 +1.0 149 +1.7 7
133 San Diego 0.0%   14 - 16 7 - 11 14 - 16 7 - 11 +2.3      +0.1 176 +2.2 110 61.7 315 +1.6 143 +1.9 6
152 Santa Clara 0.0%   12 - 19 6 - 12 12 - 19 6 - 12 +1.1      +1.7 132 -0.6 190 66.0 226 -0.3 172 +0.5 9
153 Pacific 0.0%   14 - 15 6 - 12 14 - 15 6 - 12 +1.0      +3.4 93 -2.3 232 68.9 147 +3.1 125 +0.5 8
156 Pepperdine 0.0%   14 - 16 8 - 10 14 - 16 8 - 10 +0.8      +1.5 138 -0.7 194 68.8 150 +1.9 137 +3.5 5
174 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   12 - 19 4 - 14 12 - 19 4 - 14 -0.6      +0.1 177 -0.7 193 75.1 42 +0.9 151 -2.6 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.0 100.0
BYU 2.0 100.0
St. Mary's 4.0 100.0
San Francisco 2.0 100.0
Portland 6.0 100.0
San Diego 6.0 100.0
Santa Clara 8.0 100.0
Pacific 8.0 100.0
Pepperdine 5.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 15 - 3 100.0
BYU 13 - 5 100.0
St. Mary's 11 - 7 100.0
San Francisco 13 - 5 100.0
Portland 7 - 11 100.0
San Diego 7 - 11 100.0
Santa Clara 6 - 12 100.0
Pacific 6 - 12 100.0
Pepperdine 8 - 10 100.0
Loyola Marymount 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0
BYU
St. Mary's
San Francisco
Portland
San Diego
Santa Clara
Pacific
Pepperdine
Loyola Marymount


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 8   0.1 2.0 5.2 20.6 31.8 25.4 12.5 2.3 0.0
BYU 60.2% 0.0% 60.2% 11   0.0 0.7 3.8 16.6 34.7 4.4 39.8 60.2%
St. Mary's 2.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.2 1.9 0.0 97.9 2.1%
San Francisco 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 59.3% 22.2% 10.2% 3.9% 1.4% 0.6%
BYU 60.2% 20.2% 50.0% 19.8% 6.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
St. Mary's 2.1% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 38.9 59.9 1.3
1st Round 100.0% 1.5 49.6 50.0 0.5
2nd Round 67.7% 0.8 32.3 55.9 11.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 27.3% 0.3 72.7 25.9 1.4
Elite Eight 12.2% 0.1 87.8 11.9 0.2
Final Four 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4 0.0
Final Game 1.6% 0.0 98.5 1.5 0.0
Champion 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6